Tearing of the Karnataka Crochet

An analysis of 2023 state election results.

Karnataka elections have been the talk of the town since past few weeks. It is mainly because the ruling BJP lost decisively in the elections. If it is some solace, perhaps, the BJP can use that popular Hindi saying, “tumhari jeet se zyada meri haar ke charche hai.” And even rightly so because the post-election analysis is all about why BJP lost and how it will impact them in 2024. For almost all media houses and their so-called ‘expert columnists’ – the winning side has done all right and the losing side has done all wrong. But the reality, undoubtedly differs.  In the next few paragraphs, I shall give you a gist of some key points of this election.

But before that, I would unfailingly take the credit of predicting these results a year ago, although in a little different fashion. I had said last year that under J.P. Nadda and B.L. Santhosh, BJP would lose their respective home states – Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and you shall see why.

Firstly, the overwhelming rhetoric is that it was an anti-incumbency wave against the BJP. I find it amusing that political analysts have failed to notice the basic fact that anti-incumbency is primarily observed in urban areas. Urban areas are the litmus test for anti-incumbency. Wherever there is anti-incumbency – the ruling party loses big in urban areas. You can see in Himachal Pradesh last year when BJP lost big chunk in Shimla or when Congress lost in almost all urban areas of Punjab and so on in any state in the country since decades. Take any election as an example where ruling party loses due to anti-incumbency and you will notice this trend. However, in Karnataka, BJP gained in urban areas of Bengaluru, Mangaluru and Mysore than last time. This is solid evidence of non-existence of anti-incumbency against the BJP government. Also, their overall vote share in the state is in the same range as last time when they were the single largest party.

The BJP has done poorly in rural areas which is because of 3 interconnected reasons –

1. Unable to sell development & resonate with rural voters
2. Infighting and factionalism amongst their own ranks
3. Failed at balancing community mix

It is stark irony that wherever BJP Government unveiled major development projects in the rural belts – they lost! They built an airport in Shimoga and lost the Shimoga rural seat; they built new medical colleges in Chikmagalur, Haveri, etc. and lost those seats; they made grand railway stations at Hosapete and Davangere and lost those seats; a HAL helicopter factory was built in Gubbi and they lost from there too! The list literally goes on and on.

Development as an election agenda is not popular amongst rural voters. They may consider it in national elections, but state elections require a more personalised approach. Marketing and selling development to rural voters is a skillful task. As CM of Gujarat, Modiji did that effectively. But even with Modiji as CM, BJP did not do as good in national elections in Gujarat until he became a PM candidate himself. The point here is that only the state CM & state leaders can sell development to the people in state elections and nobody else. It is the job of the man on the ballot. Here, they unilaterally relied on Central leaders including PM Modiji to come and sell their development which by any means cannot resonate with rural voters who then fall prey to freebies offered by other parties.

The lack of connect with rural voters had a multiplier effect owing to the fact that the BJP Karnataka unit was utterly divided. A unit not in unison can never deliver a clear message. Infighting in BJP was at it’s peak where openly leaders like C.T. Ravi and others took a dig at their senior most leader – B.S. Yediyurappa. To make matters worse, the national party unit played a villain’s role in this. The No. 2 person in BJP’s hierarchy – who is technically like the CEO of the Party – B.L. Santhosh was effectively leading this election by side-lining other leaders including B.S. Yediyurappa who was just made a poster boy to deliver votes of the Lingayat community. Not to mention the fact that replacing B.S. Yediyurappa as CM in the middle of the term was a bizarre and wrong decision taken under leadership of B.L. Santhosh and J.P. Nadda. To balance out equations, they brought in Basavaraj Bommai, who was also a Lingayat and closer to Yediyurappa, as CM but he was never fully backed by the central party unit which was filled by handpicked loyalists of B.L. Santhosh.

This infighting gave room to the Congress to strike the heart of BJP in Karnataka – the Lingayat voters. Balancing community mix in Karnataka is crucial. When BJP came to power for the first time in the state under leadership of B.S. Yediyurappa, they struck four pockets of votes – Lingayats, OBCs, Vokkaligas and cosmopolitan voters. Previously, Yediyurappa being the Lingayat strongman delivered with their unwavering support by personally reaching out to all community bastions. At the same time, leaders like D.V. Sadananda Gowda brought in chunks of Vokkaliga votes and the state leadership solidified it’s base amongst OBCs. This mix had an edge with Anantha Kumar bringing in urban based votes given his national presence.

This well crafted crochet of Karnataka was ruthlessly torn apart by the present BJP leadership under J.P. Nadda who gave a free hand to B.L. Santhosh to take calls regarding Karnataka. He was leading from the back while B.L. Santhosh was embroiled in factional war with Yediyurappa and CM Bommai’s hands tied to quite an extent in this regard. This is in stark contrast with how Amit Shah led the election campaign as BJP chief in 2018 Karnataka elections. He focused on rural voters, went door-to-door in villages, broke bread with farmers and balanced community equations. Not to forget the photo finish of 2018 – the senior most Lingayat seer, Pujya Siddheshwar Swamiji (who was called the ‘living god’) coming out personally in presence of BJP leaders which solidified the Lingayat support base of BJP. This time, Pujya Swamiji was no more and Lingayats were being divided every hour by Congress. There was no strong attempt to bring them together by the BJP.

At the same time, the traditional vote bank of JD(S) – the Vokkaligas were also not strongly targeted by the BJP. The JD(S) vote transferred to Congress was a major blow in many constituencies for the BJP. Surprisingly, most people expected JD(S) to be completely obliterated in this election and would be reduced to single digits. Not only that didn’t happen, the JD(S) while holding up on it’s own benefitted the Congress in practically every rural constituency.

Lastly, some media analysts want to portray that ‘Hindutva’ of BJP does not work in South and while some others tend to say that BJP didn’t do enough for ‘Hindutva’ in the state. I would laugh at both these analysis as it primarily ignores nature of Karnataka.

By and large, Karnataka has had Hindutva mindset even before the foundation of BJP. I do not want to bore you with histrionics, but would suffice to say that right since the era of Indira-Rajiv – Hindu issues and sentiments mattered to the state and they formed part of major state discourse. Therefore, leaders of both sides at the grassroot level have promulgated ‘Hindutva’ in some form or the other. Unfailingly, this time, Congress tried hard to reach out to Lingayats and other major Hindu Communities – promised them sops like re-construction of temples etc.

Thus, to say that Hindutva doesn’t work in Karnataka is foolishness. Just that it won’t work in isolation because the majority of the state is already pro-Hindu. For example, BJP won in Udupi which was the epicentre of the motivated Hijab protests. Simply putting – the Hindutva in South also needs to be personalised and not nationalised. Yediyurappa himself rose to prominence in the 90s following the major Hindu movement in the Idgah Maidan issue. But this time, BJP failed to highlight their personalised work on the Hindutva front for Karnataka like attempting to free temples, abolition of religion-based quotas, etc. It was like being “a day late and a dollar short” – which basically sums up the whole Karnataka election for the BJP.

Nevertheless, I feel PM Modiji would not have failed to see the silver lining in Congress victory in Karnataka which has completely foiled plans of those like Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar & KCR who want to take the Congress space at the national stage by portraying themselves as PM candidates in 2024. This election is a shot in the arm for Congress which means they won’t give up on the national space. A divided front in 2024, is a blessing in disguise for BJP – and they have just learnt vital lessons in Himachal and Karnataka. Rest, we’ll see as it unfolds…

Jai Hind.