Pragmatism Ultra Pro Max – Reading between the lines of ceasefire!

“Take whatever you can – give nothing back!” – This famous line from ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ resonates with India’s pragmatic approach during the recent conflict and the ceasefire thereafter.

The conspiracy theories floating around social media asserting that foreign powers like Donald Trump or China orchestrated this conflict lack credibility. Having lived under the regime of Hon. Prime Minister since more than a decade, it is practically a sin to fathom the thought that we would start or end a war under the pretext of any foreign power. We chose the timing and targets for ‘Operation Sindoor’ independently. It was this operation that prompted reactions from Pakistan. Hence, these events could not have been pre-planned by any one in any manner.

For a careful observer, the mystery actually unravels with Operation Sindoor itself which targeted the very heart of terror infrastructure. Notorious training centres, which were the ‘alma mater’ of the likes of David Headley and Ajmal Kasab, were brought to dust. Sky-high explosions seen by ordinary Pakistani civilians shook their hearts. The most wanted terrorist and military chief of JeM Abdul Rauf Azhar, who was also the killer of Jewish journalist Daniel Pearl, was terminated. A host of other operational heads of their odious apparatus were lying dead in the debris.

It was a loss of face for their ‘son of Imam’ Army Chief Asim Munir. He is a Shia chief of a Sunni Army and is already on the verge of facing sanctions due to his role in unlawful imprisonment of Imran Khan along with the decimation of his political outfit by use of brutal force. Given the rivalry and tussle within the ranks of Pakistani army, the fingers in the blame game were pointed towards him. Silence on his part could have resulted in his funeral. Our forces had anticipated a response from Pakistan and kept our air defence mechanism up and running. We even took a mock drill on the very same day we carried out the Operation Sindoor.

My recent posts on Instagram have outlined the efficacy of the ‘drone attacks’ and their real intention. For the benefit of the reader, I am not venturing into those details again.

Now enter – Donald Trump whose announcement took many by surprise. The timing of this conflict coincided poorly for Trump, who was about to enter into Trade negotiations with China in Switzerland. US had lowered the tariffs on China by sixty-five per cent ahead of these talks. Trump is already walking on a tight rope juggling with twin objectives of negotiating a deal with China and delivering on the ‘America First’ agenda. A war between India and Pakistan at this juncture could have tossed the whole thing up for him. The US establishment, with which Trump is still at loggerheads, has not yet been able to wash their dirty hands of Pakistan. Trump solely allying with India would have caused a backlash from US establishment as well as China. 

China, like Trump, cannot afford to lose more after being embroiled in a Trade War, which it definitely cannot win or sustain for too long. On the other hand, China is already reeling under the weight of its economic situation and its white elephant – BRI. Their ‘ironclad’ support to Pakistan announced after the ceasefire is nothing but hollow words. They have seen our mettle during the ‘Doka La’ Pass stand-off and Galvan Conflict. Neither a direct war with India was on their cards, nor was there any troop movement across the LoAC. Instead, over past months China has been trying to improve relations beginning with the symbolic gesture of starting the ‘Kailash Mansarovar Yatra’. Not to forget – the internal rebellion in the CCP. Over last two years, Xi Jinping has purged his own chosen officials including high ranking generals, admirals and ministers. A classic example is Qin Gang, who was once a high-profile foreign minister, got sidelined by Xi for his growing stature. The enemies of Xi Jinping are many, but as of now – not united. Only a matter of time, according to me, before we see a regime change in China.

Using the vocab of Trump himself, we agreed to a ceasefire after “WINNING BIG!”. After this Operation, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities are glaring, and our strategic superiority is unquestionable. Even our official responses were given by a Colonel, a Wing Commander and a Bureaucrat, confirming that Pakistan does not pose a challenge that demands utmost attention of our leadership, both political and military. The recent developments have emboldened groups like the Baluchistan Liberation Army while exposing the fragility within Pakistan’s military structure. This risk of civil war has given China and terror financing nations a serious cause to worry. 

Alongside, we have done a huge favour to the Donald Trump by agreeing to the ceasefire. This favour can be cashed in when we negotiate a trade deal with him. He is also aware of the popularity of the Hon. Prime Minister amongst the Indian Community in US and his sway over their crucial votes during the midterms.  

We also showcased to the world that we are willing to shun the path of conflict and act responsibly in the war against terrorism. The already anticipated ceasefire violations were a no-brainer and are now proving our point once again. This also reconfirms the lack of control of Pakistan over its troops and their divided army ranks.

The IMF Question

The IMF loan is a non-issue which unnecessarily got tangled in this conflict. Last year in September, IMF had approved a 37-month credit facility of 7 billion USD for structural challenges and macroeconomic stability in Pakistan, whose economy continues to be in shambles. Pakistan was entitled to immediately withdraw 1 billion USD upon completion of the bi-annual review by IMF. When the review was final and about to be approved, the conflict had begun. We seized the last minute opportunity to launch a protest against the actual disbursement echoing our earlier concerns regarding the misuse of IMF programmes by states like Pakistan. Our abstention was a strategic manoeuvre to highlight the dwindling credibility of IMF and our intention to counter the enemy on all fronts. The annual budget of BMC is more than the entire 7 billion USD credit facility available to Pakistan. This amount is not significant enough to influence the outcome of this conflict or any course of action otherwise. 

Also, we have seen IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva coming all the way up to North Block to plead the case of her candidacy. In light of these events, we shall definitely weaponise our cooperation for the remainder of her tenure and the vote during the election of the next IMF chief.

Tailpiece

If you are thinking PoK, then let me tell you that we have moved many steps ahead in that direction. But the merger of PoK has to be as per our plan and timing. It shall be detrimental to act in haste upon provocation or public sentiment. On the other hand, we can now watch Pakistan tremble in civil war and financial ruin without losing any soldier or military assets. All these ‘BIG WINS!’ – in Trump vocab – before and after ceasefire are due to the pragmatism of our leadership at the Ultra Pro Max level.